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| NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this image of coronal loops above an active region on the Sun in mid-January 2012, using the 171 angstrom wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light. |
For decades, scientists have struggled to predict solar flares—intense bursts of light on the Sun that can send a cascade of charged particles across the solar system. However, recent findings using NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory may provide a breakthrough in forecasting these powerful events, offering crucial protection for astronauts and technological infrastructure.
A team of scientists, led by heliophysicist Emily Mason from Predictive Sciences Inc. in San Diego, California, has identified specific flickering loops in the solar atmosphere, or corona, that seem to signal when the Sun is about to unleash a large flare. These "warning signs" could offer NASA and other space organizations the ability to better safeguard astronauts and both space and ground-based technologies from the potential hazards posed by space weather.
The research, published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters in December 2024 and presented at the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society in January 2025, focuses on coronal loops—arch-like structures that emerge from active magnetic regions on the Sun, where solar flares typically originate. The team studied the behavior of these loops, particularly their brightness in extreme ultraviolet light, in the hours leading up to 50 major solar flares.
The results are striking. Unlike loops in non-flaring regions, the coronal loops above active areas show erratic fluctuations in brightness before a flare. "We found that some of the extreme ultraviolet light above active regions flickers erratically for a few hours before a solar flare," said Mason. "This discovery could significantly improve our ability to predict space weather events and prevent potential damage."
Researchers also observed that the flickering seems to peak earlier for stronger flares, although further study is needed to solidify this connection. The team believes that measuring the brightness variations in these loops could provide more accurate predictions—offering a 60 to 80 percent chance of forecasting a flare 2 to 6 hours ahead of time.
Current solar flare prediction techniques, which primarily focus on analyzing magnetic fields on the Sun, have struggled to offer specific timelines for flare activity. In contrast, this new method of monitoring chaotic behavior in coronal loop emissions presents a more reliable and consistent warning system.
"The Sun’s corona is a dynamic environment, and each solar flare is unique," explained team member Kara Kniezewski, a graduate student at the Air Force Institute of Technology. "By searching for periods of chaotic behavior in the coronal loop emissions rather than relying on specific trends, we can improve prediction accuracy and potentially assess the strength of a flare."
If further studies validate these findings, the data could be used to protect astronauts, spacecraft, and even power grids on Earth from the damaging effects of solar flares. Real-time monitoring using the Solar Dynamics Observatory could trigger automated alerts based on the brightness variations in coronal loops, providing an early warning system for space weather events.
"As the research evolves, we aim to develop a simpler, well-tested metric that can be integrated into operational systems," said co-author Vadim Uritsky of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. "This approach could mark the transition from theoretical research to practical, real-world applications."
In sum, these new insights into coronal loop behavior could pave the way for a more reliable method of predicting solar flares, making space exploration and technology safer for all.
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